What’s the Deal With Flying Taxis?
“What’s the deal with flying taxis?” is the question I usually get from people after I tell them about my relatively new role as Executive Director at Urban Movement Labs (UML). It follows after I tell people about how UML is an independent nonprofit organization that spun out of Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti’s office in late 2019; how our mission is to work at the intersection of public agencies and private companies to facilitate the deployment of new transportation technology in a way that is safe, equitable, sustainable, and beneficial to communities. Since that is quite a mouthful, I sometimes use an even shorter description, that at UML, we are trying to transform the way government works for communities and businesses. I then explain some of the work we are currently doing:
- Informing potential revisions to the permitting processes for new technology to make it easier and reduce the burdens on limited City staff resources;
- testing and evaluating new personal delivery devices (PDDs), aka delivery robots, in different parts of LA;
- deploying and testing new curb and sidewalk asset management technologies; and
- the thoughtful integration of Urban Air Mobility (UAM) into the Los Angeles’ transportation system.
That’s usually when I get the question about flying taxis.
Science and Fiction
I grew up watching shows like The Jetsons, and when I was eight years old, my view of the future was solidified by Doctor Emmit Brown flipping a switch and making his Delorean switch from a standard car into a flying vehicle and saying, “Roads? Where we’re going, we don’t need roads.” The ending of the classic film “Back to the Future” indicated that by the year 2015, there would be flying cars. So much of the sci-fi genre I enjoyed in my early ages pointed towards a future of dense urban environments with flying cars that I thought it was a given.
And then here we are in 2021. We’ve been through a crazy year of a global pandemic, political nut-jobbery, and social upheaval. Cars still drive on roads, and those roads are getting back to the expected levels of excessive congestion that were the norm pre-COVID. Here in LA, we’ve got severe problems with homelessness, severe disparities in health and social equity, and infrastructure (e.g., sidewalks, roads, water distribution) in dire need of focused attention and upgrade. So why should anyone care or be talking about flying taxis? Don’t we have enough to deal with?
Yes, we have a lot to deal with, as a society, as elected officials, as public employees, as private businesses, and as private citizens. Does that mean we should put our heads down and focus on grinding out solutions to today’s problems without thinking about what might be next? We can’t afford to not think about the future, and we can look to lots of examples in history where we as a nation and society have successfully balanced addressing the challenges of today without taking our eye off of future issues. For instance, it was because of the DARPA program eight years ago that private companies like Moderna were able to develop the COVID-19 vaccine in record time last year, to help tackle one of the biggest global challenges seen in generations. The model of having a small and focused group of people focusing on unsolved future issues is a proven way to keep us as a society moving forward while ensuring that most resources are devoted to addressing the problems we face today. This represents a different model than the City of LA (and most other cities) were operating under when Uber and Lyft first came on the scene around 2012, or when the first shared e-scooters began popping up all over LA (and I mean everywhere) in 2018 or so. At those times, Cities had to pull limited staff resources off of current issues to think about how to deal with these new technologies, and often the patchwork policies and solutions were less than optimal, given the reactionary nature of the response.
That is what UML is here for. We are focused on providing that additional bandwidth to the City of Los Angeles to make sure that the challenges of the future can be considered today, and the necessary changes to how the City plans for, responds and operates can be developed and ultimately implemented. Someday soon, we hope to expand across Southern California, the State of California, and one day nationally. So we are actively working on initiatives to prepare for the imminent arrival of UAM, as “flying taxis” or simply new transportation modes that operate in the air. But is this really something that is imminent?
Days of Future Past
As a bit of background, the idea of using smaller, more agile aircraft for short-distance travel is not new. The development of the mass-production helicopter in the 1940s presented some of the first opportunities to provide air travel over shorter distances without the need for long runways and related airfield operations. In the 1950s through the 1970s, the Los Angeles Airways (LAA) company operated a variety of routes serving destinations across the greater Los Angeles region. One of the most popular routes took travelers directly from the Los Angeles International Airport (LAX) to Disneyland in Anaheim, a trip of about 30 miles. Flying a helicopter is a tricky business, and a few mistakes can result in crashes. After a series of fatal crashes, LAA ceased operations in 1971, and similar helicopter shuttle services in New York City were significantly downsized in the 1980s. Here in LA, our hearts still ache for the loss of Kobe and Gianna Bryant in a helicopter crash that almost immediately preceded the arrival of the pandemic in 2020.
There are still smaller markets for helicopter travel, and companies like Blade have been providing short-haul services primarily to customers in and around New York City since 2014. The costs of operating these services are high, and the places where helicopters can take off and land are restricted by Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) regulations, local zoning codes, and the realities of the experience of accessing rooftop helipads. That creates a relatively high price point for a ticket, limiting the market for these services and the places where the current services and routes make sense.
In case you haven’t heard, traffic congestion on the freeways and roadways of LA county is terrible. Probably the worst in the nation, and almost all times of day and days of the week. I don’t know anyone in LA county who hasn’t at least once uttered the phrase, “boy, what I would pay to just fly over all this traffic.” In fact, in 2011, when a stretch of the 405 freeway was closed for the weekend — and not just any stretch, but one of the most congested stretches in the US — clever people coined the term “Carmageddon” in anticipation of the traffic congestion nightmares that could ensue. While even more clever people offered airline flights from the Van Nuys Airport (VNY) to LAX at the low, low price of $299. They literally answered the prayers of those drivers who wished to fly over traffic, and they sold a few flights.
Is There a “There” There?
It is crucial to reflect on this history and these specific examples, as it proves there is and will continue to be a market for aerial travel within dense urban areas. Companies are standing by to serve that market. However, there are also lots of concerns about the current technologies and methods for serving this market:
- Air quality impacts from airplane and helicopter operations;
- the (constant and pervasive) noise of helicopters over the LA skies;
- the inequity of a service that costs a lot to use; and
- the limits of where and when these services can operate.
And that’s where new technology companies come into play. New companies that think they can address some of these challenges with new technology and operating models.
Some of the new technologies are focused on electrifying the aircraft, reducing operating costs, and reducing noise, all while improving the safety of the vehicles by incorporating the multi-copter technology of drones with the FAA’s stringent regulation. Innovations in these two areas could address two of the biggest challenges to expanding UAM — the cost of using the service and the impacts (in terms of air quality and noise) to communities over which these vehicles would fly. There are companies out there that are actively building these new vehicles, and some of these companies are partners with UML. They are getting the necessary certifications and approvals from Federal agencies. They are working with existing airfield operators to allow them to take off and land there. And thanks to regulations like the FAA’s Part 23, which will certify the aircraft, and Part 135, which will certify the operation, these new vehicles would be able to fly between existing airfields like VNY and LAX as soon as 2023 or 2024.
That’s right; in as little as two or three years, there could be new electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) vehicles serving routes that have already been proven to have a demand. They will offer (probably wealthier) customers the ability to travel over the congested Sepulveda pass by flying from LAX to VNY. They could offer (likely super-wealthy) residents of the tony Newport Coast in Orange County to fly between John Wayne Airport (SNA) and LAX. These won’t likely be the busiest routes, and the vital point is that they can, and probably will, legally start operations in a few short years.
Like we saw with initial Uber and Lyft services, subsidizing operations by lowering the cost for users can initially increase demand for a service (although it is not a viable long-term operating strategy). Limited infrastructure availability limits supply’s ability to meet demand, which will raise costs again — meaning, flying between existing airfields alone won’t meet the full demand for service and destinations. Therefore, to unlock long-term affordability (e.g., a service model with prices accessible to more users), it is important to build new infrastructure to meet demand.
In order to reach the true potential that eVTOLs and UAM offer, there will need to be a broader network of destinations beyond existing airfields. These destinations will need to be located close to (e.g., within walking, biking, and transit distance) of major housing and employment centers. To become a mode of travel that is a cost-equivalent of existing ground-based modes, there will need to be regular and frequent service between these destinations. Since these new destinations will serve eVTOL aircraft, they are being referred to as “vertiports.” New vertiports will also need to be developed in a way that presents a pleasing and user-friendly interface (e.g., the opposite experience of using a rooftop helipad as depicted in the movie “Die Hard”). Here is where there is a huge opportunity for local public agencies and an opportunity for UML.
The Sky’s the Limit
So what’s the deal with flying taxis? The short answer is, they’re coming. And that’s where UML comes in. We are positioning ourselves and our partners — the private companies designing and building new eVTOL aircraft, the companies that want to operate new UAM networks, the City of Los Angeles, and the people and communities across LA county — to ensure that after the arrival of “flying taxis,” we can develop a network of vertiports that overlays and supplements the existing multi-modal transportation system of LA county.
First, we can look to examples like the development of LA county’s “ExpressLanes” for ways to structure programs for equitable access and increased revenue opportunities to upgrade transit and other modes. When the ExpressLanes on I-10 and I-110 were first being discussed in LA County, the general opposition was to what many people called “Lexus lanes,” or facilities designed to allow wealthier people to face fewer travel delays and congestion. However, that opposition was countered with a robust program that both developed income-based discounts to use the new ExpressLanes and used revenue generated by the ExpressLanes to fund greater improvements to parallel transit networks.
We can also look to the challenges of new land development in California as an opportunity to better quantify the capital and operating costs of new UAM systems, which can result in better business models and fare structures while also addressing potential impacts of new development on surrounding communities. We can look to the broader benefits of a network of vertiports, like expanding and upgrading our electrical grid to ensure consistent and resilient power. And last, we can look towards the opportunities in terms of workforce development, new jobs, and better alignment of employees and jobs that can be realized with a new transportation mode.
As an independent organization, UML is working on all the issues identified above and ensuring the City of Los Angeles can focus on the immediate issues at hand. At the same time, we can also ensure that this new transport mode and system can become a true benefit to the people within LA county and not an added burden. We can do this because we are purely mission-driven, and our mission is supported by both our private and public sector partners. Are you ready to support this mission?
